like the agricultural revolution, it will dramatically alter population trends.(48)while the former set the stage for enormous increases in human numbers, this revolution will succeed only if it stabilizes human population size, reestablishing a balance between people and natural system on which they depend. in contrast to the industrial revolution, which was based on a shift to fossil fuels, this new transformation will be based on a shift away from fossil fuels.
(49)the two earlier revolutions were driven by technological advances—the first by the discovery of farming and the second by the invention of the steam engine, which converted the energy in coal into mechanical power. the environmental revolution, while it will obviously need new technologies, will be driven primarily by the restructuring of the global economy so that it does not destroy its natural support system.
the pace of the environmental revolution needs to be far faster than that of its predecessors. the agricultural revolution began some 10,000 years ago, and the industrial revolution has been under way for about two centuries. but if the environmental revolution is to succeed, it must bepressed into a few decades. progress in the agricultural revolution was measured almost exclusively in the growth in food output that eventually enabled farmers to produce a surplus that could feed city dwellers. similarly, industrial progress was gained by success in expanding the output of raw materials and manufactured goods.(50)the environmental revolution will be judged by whether it can shift the world economy into an environmentally sustainable development path, one that leads to greater economic security, healthier lifestyles, and a worldwide improvement in the human condition.
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